This has been a Thingyan full of intense discussions, reading and planning for the covid situation. I want to outline some of my initial thoughts.
1) The increases in covid cases in Myanmar are in line with our expectations. It’s likely that we will be seeing many more cases per day.
2) Extending a lockdown policy beyond Thingyan seem inevitable. Some curfew and stronger lockdown are also highly likely. We should expect things to be in lock down through April, maybe even through May.
3) Recession triggered by Covid is the deepest in the last 100+ years. Economies are put into complete standstill. Many businesses have zero revenue and have to cut jobs and other costs, which triggers less spending. Every business will be affected.
4) Lower business activities will last for a long time. The virus will remain for a long time as vaccine is 12-18 months away and may not be effective. Covid is spread without symptoms, so people’s activities will be seriously reduced until we find a way to test people regularly.
5) Global financial crisis in 2008 took 10 years to recover. This recession is 4x worse. It may be many many years before we recover.
6) How we live, work and interact may be different going forward. Every business need to think about survival and business strategy in the new world.
In this crisis, only the fittest will survive. We need to be fully ready, warm up our muscles and face this storm together.